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In spring 2015, we launched the Future of the Chemical Sciences initiative. We involved leaders from our community, to help us understand how the chemical sciences could evolve in the next ten to twenty years.

We used scenario planning as a methodology to understand uncertainty and challenge conventional thinking, and develop four plausible but unexpected scenarios for the future of chemistry.

We hope our report will stimulate dialogue within our community about how to prepare for an uncertain future, so that we can shape the way the chemical sciences develop, for the benefit of people around the world. 

What is scenario planning?

Long-term planning is a complicated activity. It requires an organisation to make its best estimate of what the future will be. Scenario planning is a useful methodology for considering multiple possible futures at once, to help organisations prepare.

The following video provides an introduction to scenario planning.

Three ways to use our scenarios

We encourage organisations in the chemical science community to use these scenarios to challenge their current thinking and consider how they might prepare for and shape the future.

1. Focus on strategy development. Use the scenarios as a starting point for developing your strategy and to build foresight capacity in your organisation. Encourage your leadership team to reframe the scenarios. Which themes are most relevant for your organisation? What new developments do you need to take into account? What further information would they like?

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2. 'Sense-checking' existing strategies. Use the scenarios to ���sense-check��� your current strategy. Would it still make sense in each of our plausible future scenarios? Is it flexible enough to allow your organisation to adapt to potential changes over the next ten to twenty years? You could map out available options to strengthen your strategy, or open up strategic conversations with your internal and external stakeholders to find new options.

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3. Encouraging and assessing 'out-of-the-box' thinking. The scenarios can help you explore alternative outcomes that could lead to disruptive changes in your business environment. For this reason, they are useful when assessing new projects that are a significant departure from the status quo for your organisation, and for challenging teams to think 'out of the box', which itself can foster innovative ideas.

Further resources

The following resources can help you in your own scenario planning.